Synthetic-Powered Multiple Testing with FDR Control

2026-02-18Machine Learning

Machine Learning
AI summary

The authors present SynthBH, a new method for testing many hypotheses at once while keeping the rate of false discoveries under control. This method uses extra synthetic or related data to improve testing without compromising accuracy. They prove SynthBH reliably controls false discoveries even if the synthetic data isn’t perfect. Tests on real and simulated data show it can increase the ability to detect true effects when the synthetic data is good, but it remains safe regardless of quality.

multiple hypothesis testingfalse discovery ratesynthetic datap-valuespositive dependencesample efficiencypowergenomicsoutlier detection
Authors
Yonghoon Lee, Meshi Bashari, Edgar Dobriban, Yaniv Romano
Abstract
Multiple hypothesis testing with false discovery rate (FDR) control is a fundamental problem in statistical inference, with broad applications in genomics, drug screening, and outlier detection. In many such settings, researchers may have access not only to real experimental observations but also to auxiliary or synthetic data -- from past, related experiments or generated by generative models -- that can provide additional evidence about the hypotheses of interest. We introduce SynthBH, a synthetic-powered multiple testing procedure that safely leverages such synthetic data. We prove that SynthBH guarantees finite-sample, distribution-free FDR control under a mild PRDS-type positive dependence condition, without requiring the pooled-data p-values to be valid under the null. The proposed method adapts to the (unknown) quality of the synthetic data: it enhances the sample efficiency and may boost the power when synthetic data are of high quality, while controlling the FDR at a user-specified level regardless of their quality. We demonstrate the empirical performance of SynthBH on tabular outlier detection benchmarks and on genomic analyses of drug-cancer sensitivity associations, and further study its properties through controlled experiments on simulated data.